Wall Street's next big test is looming with Nvidia's profit report
Aug. 21, 2024, 8:01 p.m.
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NEW YORK -- How much hype is left in Nvidia's stock ? Anyone with an S & P 500 index fund is hoping to get an answer to that weighty question next week
Nvidia has capitalized on Wall Street's enthusiasm for artificial intelligence , becoming one of the stock market's most valuable companies , with a market value exceeding $3 trillion. Significant investments have fueled this growth , and tech companies continue to purchase Nvidia's chips for training their AI models.
When Nvidia releases its latest financial results on Wednesday, analysts predict revenue to have soared to $28.65 billion in the spring, a 112% increase from the previous year. This would be a substantial outperformance compared to the projected 5% revenue growth for S & P 500 companies overall during the same period, according to FactSet.
However, critics argue that this exceptional growth has led to excessive optimism among investors. In the first six months of the year, Nvidia's stock surged nearly 150%. At that point, the stock was trading at a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 100, based on the past 12 months' earnings. This valuation is significantly higher than historical levels and compared to the S & P 500 index as a whole.
Combined with Nvidia's large size, the exceptional performance meant the chip company accounted for almost 30% of the S & P 500's total return for the first six months of the year. All that from just one of the 500 companies in the index, or 0.2% of its membership.
This exaggerated valuation revealed its downside this summer, as Nvidia's stock plunged 27% from its peak in late June to early August. Wall Street expressed concerns that Nvidia and other major tech companies had become overly expensive, reminiscent of the tech bubble of the 1990s, even acknowledging their significantly higher profitability compared to dot-com companies in the late 20th century.
Nvidia's decline contributed to a nearly 10% drop in the S & P 500 from its all-time high reached last month. On certain days, the S & P 500 fell despite a majority of stocks on Wall Street gaining value. Declines for Nvidia and other influential Big Tech stocks on those days outweighed all other market movements.
The recent declines reduced "some of the excesses" after investors heavily invested in Nvidia and a few other major tech companies, according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Nvidia's earnings report next week could reveal how much, if any, excess remains. A strong performance by Nvidia doesn't guarantee further stock price increases. Consider what happened with the parent company of Google earlier this reporting period.
Alphabet 's stock dropped even though it delivered both profit and revenue that topped analysts' forecasts, a signal of just how difficult it would be for its stock to rally further.
That's why, despite the market's focus on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's highly anticipated speech on Friday about interest rates, the market's attention was on Nvidia's upcoming report, according to Bank of America strategists led by Ohsung Kwon.