Summer 2024 has been confirmed as the hottest on record, significantly increasing the likelihood that this year will become the warmest ever measured, according to the European climate service Copernicus, reporting on Friday.

This news may sound familiar, as last year saw global temperature records shattered, driven by human-induced climate change, with a temporary surge from an El Niño event, scientists stated. This relentless pattern of rising temperatures and intensified extreme weather persists, scientists say.

The northern meteorological summer – June, July, and August – saw an average temperature of 16.8 degrees Celsius (62.24 degrees Fahrenheit), as per Copernicus. This surpasses the previous record set in 2023 by 0.03 degrees Celsius (0.05 degrees Fahrenheit). While Copernicus records date back to 1940, American, British, and Japanese records, spanning back to the mid-19th century, indicate that the past decade has been the warmest on record since consistent measurements began, and likely the hottest in about 120,000 years, according to some scientists.

The months of August in both 2024 and 2023 were tied for the hottest Augusts globally at 16.82 degrees Celsius (62.27 degrees Fahrenheit). July was the first month in over a year where the world did not set a record, slightly cooler than 2023, but because June 2024 was much hotter than June 2023, this entire summer was the hottest, Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo stated.

“These sobering figures demonstrate how the climate crisis is tightening its hold on us,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, who was not involved in the research.

It's a sweltering grip because with the high temperatures, the dew point — one of several ways to measure the air's humidity — likely reached or was close to record highs this summer for much of the world, Buontempo said.

Until last month, Buontempo, like other climate scientists, was uncertain whether 2024 would surpass the hottest year record set in 2023, primarily due to the exceptionally hot August 2023. However, this August 2024 mirrored the temperatures of August 2023, leading Buontempo to be “pretty certain” that this year will ultimately become the hottest on record.

“For 2024 not to become the warmest year on record, we would need to witness a significant cooling of global temperatures for the remaining months, which seems unlikely at this point,” Buontempo said.

With a forecasted La Niña – a temporary natural cooling of parts of the central Pacific – the last four months of the year might not see the record-breaking temperatures observed for much of the past year and a half. However, this cooling is unlikely to be substantial enough to prevent 2024 from breaking the annual temperature record, Buontempo stated.

These aren't just numbers in a record book, but weather events with significant human impact, climate scientists emphasized.

“These extreme temperatures translate to more hardship around the globe, with places like Phoenix experiencing prolonged periods of intense heat, akin to an oven set on high,” said Jonathan Overpeck, University of Michigan environment dean and climate scientist. Phoenix has recorded over 100 days of 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius) this year. “Prolonged and more severe heat waves exacerbate droughts in some regions while leading to heavier rainfall and flooding in others. The evidence of climate change is becoming undeniable and its costs are mounting.”

Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Cape Cod, pointed to a surge in extreme weather events, including intense heat, floods, wildfires, and powerful winds, all posing significant risks.

“Much like individuals living in a war zone, constantly bombarded by the sounds of explosions and gunfire, we are becoming desensitized to what should be urgent warnings and alarms,” Francis stated in an email.

While a portion of last year's record-breaking heat was attributed to an El Nino — a temporary natural warming of parts of the central Pacific that impacts weather globally — that influence has dissipated, revealing that the primary driver is the long-term human-induced climate change resulting from the combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, Buontempo stated.

“It's not surprising to witness this heat wave, these temperature extremes,” Buontempo said. “We are likely to see more of these events in the future.”

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