Several prominent schools targeted by the Pac-12 for expansion have rejected its offers, with Memphis, Tulane, USF, and UTSA publicly affirming their commitment to the American Athletic Conference on Monday.

The schools formally announced their decision on social media, solidifying the AAC's position in the short term and leaving the six-team Pac-12 in a precarious position as it seeks at least two more members to complete its restructuring.

The Pac-12 recently welcomed Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, and San Diego State, aiming to establish itself as the clear fifth-best football conference. The conference is also engaging in discussions with Gonzaga for a basketball addition, with sources telling ESPN that the deal would include full revenue sharing. ESPN's Kyle Bonagura is also reporting early-stage talks with Saint Mary's for potential Pac-12 membership.

However, the Pac-12's momentum to become the top football conference outside of the Power 4 leagues has faltered, as Memphis was seen as a crucial addition to any potential expansion.

The schools issued statements filled with standard language about student-athletes and academics, but the reality is that a significant financial risk was associated with joining the Pac-12. AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti has aggressively sought to leverage private equity funding to bolster the league's financial position.

The four schools released a joint statement that said, in part: "While we acknowledge receiving interest in our institutions from other conferences, we firmly believe that it is in our individual and collective best interests to maintain our commitment to each other."

The AAC's exit fees were a major concern, with SMU paying $25 million to depart within the 27-month timeframe. Taking into account revenue losses, the projected cost for each school to leave would be $27.5 million, as the Pac-12 is scheduled to begin competition in 2026.

A key obstacle for the Pac-12 in its pursuit of high-profile AAC programs was its inability to offer a firm financial commitment. The Pac-12 is currently collaborating with its consulting partner, Navigate, to restructure the league. Travel expenses also played a significant role in the decision-making process. Navigate has been actively involved in outreach efforts on behalf of the Pac-12, according to sources.

While the Pac-12 has presented revenue projections exceeding $12 million, there's no assurance of achieving that figure, as the final league membership remains uncertain. This uncertainty has hindered the conference's ability to gauge television partner interest and secure a definitive deal. The lack of clarity has created risk for AAC schools, including Memphis, Tulane, and USF, which currently earn approximately $9 million in revenue from the league, encompassing media rights, bowl agreements, and NCAA distributions.

Following the Pac-12's setbacks in securing key targets on Monday, the Mountain West has been actively working to solidify its own league. ESPN reported that the Mountain West is offering substantial incentives to Air Force and UNLV to remain within the conference. The Mountain West is extending additional financial benefits to all eight of its members, while also guaranteeing that they will not experience a decrease in their media contract value.

ESPN has confirmed that Air Force has committed to remaining in the Mountain West. This commitment is formalized in a memorandum of understanding that will facilitate the league's efforts to secure a television deal and grant of rights.