Vice President Kamala Harris faces the crucial task of convincing the public that she possesses the skills to address economic issues and the compassion to relate to their concerns, both at the Democratic National Convention and beyond.

She's got competition: An analysis of
/Washington Post/Ipsos polling data shows that the same to-do items top the list for former President Donald Trump .

While a slight majority favor Harris over Trump in handling the economy, the perception of her understanding people's struggles is a close second in predicting vote preference for her. Currently, Harris trails Trump in economic competence but leads him in perceived empathy.

Both these qualities are powerful factors in voter decisions, eclipsing traditional considerations like party affiliation, ideology, and race/ethnicity as top predictors of vote preference, according to a regression analysis conducted for ABC by Langer Research Associates .

These factors are remarkably consistent in predicting support for Trump. The belief that he is the better choice to manage the economy stands as the primary predictor, closely followed by the perception that he understands the challenges people face.

Regression analysis isolates variables to determine which ones independently predict an outcome. When predicting voter preference for Harris over Trump, or Trump over Harris, models using only demographic factors account for 55% of the variation. Including perceived empathy and economic competence increases this to 70%, creating a robust model.

Beyond economic competence and empathy, other factors influencing a preference for Harris over Trump include being a Democrat, having higher education, and holding liberal views. Conversely, predicting a vote for Trump involves factors like being a Republican, residing in a rural area, having lower education levels, and adhering to conservative principles.

The analysis highlights the crucial role of demonstrating both empathy and economic leadership in garnering support. The current landscape reveals why the race is close: Trump outpaces Harris by 9 points, 46-37%, in perceived ability to handle the economy, while Harris holds a 7-point advantage, 40-33%, in perceived empathy.

Importantly, 26% currently do not favor either candidate in terms of empathy, and 16% do not trust either on economic matters. These undecided voters present a prime target for both Harris and Trump to sway.

Their current strategies diverge: Among individuals who distrust both candidates' economic capabilities, Harris holds a 53-22% lead over Trump, with 18% indicating support for another candidate. Conversely, among those who feel neither candidate understands their concerns, Trump edges out Harris 49-35%, with 14% opting for an alternative.

Methodology:

The intention to vote for Harris over Trump in November was modeled using logistic regression, with binary responses from Q3_Q5net serving as the dependent variable, coded as 1) Harris/Walz and 0) Trump/Vance. This coding is reversed for predicting intention to vote for Trump over Harris, with 1) Trump/Vance and 0) Harris/Walz. The independent variables are listed in the table.