Why Nord Stream gas pipelines matter, not just for gas but also European politics

Aug. 17, 2024, 1:38 a.m.

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German authorities have issued an arrest warrant for Volodymyr Z, a Ukrainian citizen, following a nearly two-year investigation. He is suspected of being involved in the explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022. The Ukrainian government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has denied any involvement in the incident, which has strained relationships within Europe, particularly in the Baltic Sea region.

Media reports from Germany and the United States suggest that an individual identified as Volodymyr Z, likely an alias, was part of a team of six divers who planted explosives on both pipelines of Nord Stream 1 and one of the two pipelines of Nord Stream 2 in the Baltic Sea.

Advertisement While the true identity of Volodymyr Z remains unclear, Polish officials have reportedly confirmed to German authorities that the suspect was in Poland in July before returning to their home country.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Nord Stream operation was orchestrated at the highest levels of the Ukrainian government, with senior officials playing a role. “The whole thing originated from a night of heavy drinking and the unwavering determination of a small group of individuals who were willing to risk their lives for their country,” an officer allegedly involved in the plot was quoted as saying.

Reports also indicate that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially authorized the plan, but when information about it reached the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), they pressured the Ukrainian leader to abandon the operation.

If Zelenskyy reversed his decision and withdrew support for the Nord Stream pipeline explosions, who then gave the authorization for it?

Reports suggest that Zelenskyy's top military commander had already committed to the plan and proceeded with the operation despite the Ukrainian president's decision to oppose it.

In a surprising turn of events, Mykhailo Podolyak, Zelenskyy's presidential advisor, attributed the explosions to Russia in a statement on Thursday, while denying Ukraine's role in the sabotage.

Meanwhile, Russia has consistently claimed that the US, the UK, and Ukraine were behind the explosions. All three countries have vehemently denied any involvement.

But the Nord Stream has always been a problem

In the early 2000s, Germany engaged in extensive negotiations with Russia to establish a direct gas pipeline. The aim was to reduce costs for Germany and secure its energy supply for the long term.

Prior to the Nord Stream pipelines, Russian gas was transported through Ukraine, generating substantial transit fees estimated at $2 billion annually. This cost, of course, was ultimately borne by consumers, including German citizens. In today's market, the construction of Nord Stream amounted to $8.1 billion.

When Germany and Russia explored an alternative route bypassing Ukraine, it presented a potential financial benefit for Poland. However, Germany and Russia ultimately chose to construct the pipelines through the sea.

During the development and operation of the Nord Stream pipelines, both Ukraine and Poland expressed strong opposition, citing security concerns.

A short timeline of North Streams

2005: While initial discussions began in the 1990s, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a declaration in 2005 to construct the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

2010: Construction began on both the Russian and German sides of Nord Stream 1, a twin pipeline spanning 1,224 kilometers.

2012: The Nord Stream pipelines were commissioned, with the operator stating that Nord Stream could supply natural gas to Europe for at least the next 50 years.

In 2013, plans were put in motion for Nord Stream 2, consisting of two 1,250 km pipelines to be laid alongside the existing Nord Stream 1.

Advertisement Crimea and after

In March 2014, Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, drawing flak from across Europe and America. But then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided not to suspend the pipeline project.

However, the annexation of Crimea led Ukraine and Poland to express concerns about the Nord Stream pipelines, citing security risks. The European Union (EU) also voiced its anxieties regarding energy security and the possibility of a shift in diplomatic alliances.

After becoming president in 2016, Donald Trump warned Germany, expressing concerns about its growing reliance on Russian energy supplies. Trump believed this dependence gave Putin an unfair amount of leverage to influence the West.

Advertisement Germany ignored these concerns as Nord Streams not only came up as an answer to Europe’s lingering energy supply concern but also as a long-term guarantee of stability as it involved huge cash flow.

Construction began in 2018, prompting a strong reaction from the US. The US ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, sent threatening letters to German companies participating in the Nord Stream project.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline was finished in 2021, coinciding with Chancellor Olaf Scholz's election. Scholz maintained that the gas pipelines should be seen as a commercial private venture, separate from the West's relationship with Putin's Russia.

The invasion of Ukraine and explosion at Nord Streams

In February, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, a German ally. This invasion validated Ukraine's earlier concerns. It led to widespread sanctions against Russia, while gas continued to flow through the Nord Stream pipelines.

Russia halted the flow of natural gas through Nord Stream 1 during July and August of 2022, citing maintenance as the reason. However, many believe it was a tactic to pressure the West into lifting sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine. While gas flow resumed, it never reached the previous levels.

And amidst this, a team of suspected trained Ukrainian individuals dived into the Baltic Sea to attach explosives to three Nord Stream pipelines, near the Danish island of Bornholm. Soon, Germany initiated an investigation in coordination with Denmark and Sweden.

After two years of investigation, Germany has issued an arrest warrant for Volodymyr Z, one of six suspects linked to the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions. Notably, his name bears a striking resemblance to that of the Ukrainian president.