South Koreans are starkly divided over North Korea's nuclear threat
Sept. 12, 2024, 4:30 a.m.
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POHANG, South Korea -- There are two Koreas, North and South. But there's also more than one South Korea , with the nation split into camps with polar opposite views on the danger posed by their nuclear-armed neighbor to the north.
This division in South Korean public opinion has persisted throughout a turbulent history marked by war, dictatorship, poverty, and, in recent decades, rapid but uneven economic growth. Views on North Korea are now more polarized than ever, influenced - or perhaps not - by Pyongyang's repeated threats to attack South Korea and its development of nuclear weapons.
Spending time in South Korea reveals constant reminders of North Korea's potential nuclear threat - and the contrasting interpretations of Pyongyang's actions among residents.
Older individuals and conservatives often express greater apprehension about North Korea than liberals and younger people. However, sweeping generalizations are impossible. Many young people also harbor fear. And some older individuals, having spent their lives hearing North Korea's warnings, feel no fear at all.
Relations with North Korea often improve under liberal South Korean governments eager for dialogue, and deteriorate under conservative leaders like the current hard-line president. A tough stance in Seoul typically triggers more weapons tests from Pyongyang, as seen on Thursday , and more aggressive rhetoric, leading to intense South Korean media coverage. During the previous liberal government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un held summits with then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in, paving the way for meetings between Kim and former President Donald Trump.
Many in South Korea dismiss the nuclear threat as empty because of a simple reality: Aside from occasional deadly clashes, the North has not followed through on its promises to use its weapons in a full-scale attack on the South. Still, for South Koreans observing the rapid pace of North Korea's nuclear and missile development , there is considerable anxiety.
The Associated Press interviewed and photographed numerous South Koreans to shed light on this unique, fragmented perception of the nation's primary adversary, North Korea.
"Kim Jong Un might actually use a nuclear weapon," said Kim Jaehyun, a 22-year-old law student. "North Korea could suddenly attack us without warning."
He keeps a bulletproof vest and other military supplies in case of war. While many South Koreans his age have limited knowledge of national defense, Kim attends North Korea security seminars and reads about potential war scenarios.
Kim links his concerns, in part, to the day in 2022 when, while serving as an infantryman along the border, he heard that Pyongyang had sent a drone into South Korean airspace , violating an inter-Korean military agreement.
"There should be at least one person like me who can bring attention to how dangerous" North Korea is, Kim said. "People tend to dismiss the looming threats. It's like they see the knife getting closer but never believe it could actually stab them."
That's not the case for Shin Nari, who can readily articulate her fear of nuclear war.
"On a scale of 1 to 10, I would say 8. ... I take it very seriously," said Shin, 34, a master's student at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. A war could erupt at any moment, she says. "In a matter of seconds, we could all be wiped out."
Shin’s bookshelves are filled with materials about North Korea, and her aspiration is to work for her country in a policy-making role. She has a small reserve of bottled water and canned food in case of a nuclear attack. “It gives me a sense of security knowing I could survive for at least 14 days, maybe a month.”
South Koreans have long been divided on North Korea.
Here are some facts: North Korea invaded South Korea in June 1950, five years after the Korean Peninsula was divided by Soviet and American forces at the end of World War II. The Korean War ended in 1953 with an armistice , leaving the Korean Peninsula in a precarious state of cease-fire. This means that the two Koreas, separated by the world's most heavily fortified border, are still technically at war.
Much of the unease in the South is linked to the nuclear bombs.
North Korea has been developing its nuclear weapons program for decades, but it gained momentum in the 1990s. Throughout the years, despite intermittent disarmament negotiations, North Korea has conducted numerous missile and nuclear tests . The goal is to amass an arsenal of accurate, long-range nuclear-capable missiles.
While North Korea still faces technical challenges, the development of such an arsenal may be a matter of time. Some experts estimate that North Korea currently possesses up to 60 nuclear warheads.
Many believe that Kim Jong Un will not risk war because the military alliance between the United States and South Korea would respond with overwhelming force, decimating North Korea's leadership. However, growing concerns in South Korea about the U.S. commitment to uphold its “nuclear umbrella” protecting the South have led to repeated polls showing that over half of South Koreans desire Seoul to develop its own nuclear weapons .
Two experts who have regularly visited North Korea — former senior U.S. intelligence official Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory — argued at the beginning of this year that Kim had “made a strategic decision to go to war,” creating a situation on the Korean Peninsula that's “more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950.”
"If a fish resides in water, it doesn't contemplate the water," stated Rev. Chung Joon-hee, a pastor at Youngnak Presbyterian Church in Seoul, one of South Korea's largest and most influential churches, explaining why numerous South Koreans give little attention to North Korea.
"This is our reality," he said during a bustling Sunday service at his church, which was established by a pastor born in what is now North Korea and North Korean refugees. "There's nowhere to hide or escape. … If there's a provocation or any incident, we must accept that as a part of our existence."
Most people, Chung said, perceive tensions with North Korea as "simply a given."
"The reality of our division, the threat posed by the North, their capacity for erratic actions… besides prayer, there's not much we can be prepared for," he shared.
A clear reminder that South Korea — despite its modern, high-tech facade — is a nation at war was recently visible when hundreds of young men assembled at a military base in Pohang to commence 18 months of compulsory military service . The marine band played sentimental tunes about parting from loved ones, and the young recruits, still in their civilian attire and hairstyles, knelt with their faces on the ground, to express their gratitude to friends and family in the reviewing stands.
"I feel worried and hope he won't get injured," stated Yeon Soo Lee, 55, a kitchenware business owner from Gangneung whose son is becoming a third-generation marine. "But I have no apprehension that he will be involved in a potential war that North Korea has been suggesting will occur these days."
Others were also unfazed.
“I can't say there's absolutely no chance of war, but it's not something I dwell on. I can't live in constant fear,” said Kim Shin Hwa, 21, another marine recruit.
His father, Kim Jong Soo, a 56-year-old office worker, said South Koreans have become desensitized to the constant news of North Korean provocations. His response, when he hears about North Korea testing a missile: “'Oh, they did it again.’ We focus on our daily lives.”
But even the unworried know worriers.
Kim Jong Soo said his brother-in-law “is more cautious than me” and has stocked up on bottled water and instant noodles in case of a war.
Kwon Young-il, a 28-year-old car salesman who completed his active military service in 2021 and is now in the reserves, isn't worried about war.
What does he worry about? “Whether the army will provide a lunch box or if I need to buy my own lunch at the military store,” he said of his reserve training. “None of my friends seriously believe I'll have to fight North Korea.”
It's notoriously difficult to assess South Korean public opinion on the North.
Publicly, South Koreans tend to be indifferent to a threat they've lived with their entire lives. Some believe North Korea is adhering to a well-established pattern of escalating tensions with weapons displays and aggressive rhetoric, aiming to pave the way for negotiations and concessions. Others have unwavering faith in Washington's pronouncements about its “ironclad alliance” with Seoul. But there's also a significant amount of apprehension.
A 2023 telephone survey of 1,001 South Korean adults revealed that 45% expressed concern about North Korea's nuclear program, while 30% indicated they weren't worried, according to the state-funded Korea Institute for National Unification, which commissioned the survey.
Fear surges after major provocations, such as North Korean nuclear tests.
In 1994, panicked crowds emptied stores of instant ramen and rice after a North Korean negotiator threatened to reduce Seoul to “a sea of fire.” South Koreans have since become accustomed to such rhetoric.
Another factor contributing to North Korean nuclear anxiety in Seoul is Trump.
The former U.S. president repeatedly questioned the longstanding Seoul-Washington alliance . This, coupled with North Korea's rapid advancements in nuclear-tipped missiles that could strike the U.S. mainland, has raised significant questions in Seoul about whether Washington would fulfill its frequently stated pledge to respond with its own nuclear weapons if North Korea attacked South Korea.
U.S. officials insist that they would immediately retaliate if North Korea attacked. There are nearly 30,000 American troops stationed in South Korea and another 50,000 in nearby Japan.
In a recent address, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol presented a vision that “clearly rejects the legitimacy of the ‘Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’ (North Korea’s official name) and the idea of unification through a gradual process of integration and extensive cross-border collaboration,” according to Daniel Sneider, an East Asia expert at Stanford University.
“The conflicting visions of unification offered by President Yoon and North Korean leader Kim” — who envisions a Korea ruled by Pyongyang — “are likely to lead to even greater tensions between the Koreas,” Sneider wrote.
After North Korea launched a satellite into orbit in November — which Seoul and Washington viewed as a disguised test of long-range missile technology — and the Seoul city government sent out evacuation alerts by mistake, Jung Myungja made a significant decision: "It would be such a relief to have a safe haven nearby for my family members to seek shelter.”
So the 73-year-old woman hired a construction company to build a bunker, roughly the size of a small walk-in closet, beneath the courtyard of her house on the outskirts of Seoul.
Her son-in-law, Park Seung Tae, a 45-year-old office worker, said the bunker could provide shelter for the family for one to two weeks “if a nuclear weapon were to be detonated here.”
The company that built the bunker has secured three other similar contracts and has just begun construction on one in eastern Seoul. These bunkers typically take about a month to build and cost up to 40 million Korean won ($30,000), according to the company.
“It's impossible to predict the future,” Jung said. “These days you hear news reports and (expert) opinions suggesting that there could be another war in this country. Personally, I believe that it's a real possibility.”
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Associated Press writer Hyung-jin Kim in Seoul contributed.
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The Associated Press receives support for its nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation . The AP is solely responsible for all content.