Shadow Warrior | The geo-political fallout from Bangladesh: What should India do?
Sept. 2, 2024, 6:51 a.m.
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It was striking to hear from retired Ambassador G Sankar Iyer on Asianet's program with Ambassador TP Sreenivasan that the renowned Malayalam author Vaikom Mohammed Basheer (once nominated for the Nobel Prize in Literature) remarked in 1973: “In Bangladesh, we have created another adversary.” With his novelist's insight, Basheer recognized that the Two-Nation Theory held influence among certain segments of Bengalis.
In the current crisis situation in 2024, the ongoing persecution of Hindus (amounting to a near genocide) and the forced resignations of teachers, police officers, and other officials solely based on their Hindu faith (there are videos showcasing them being beaten and humiliated even after resigning) suggest that anti-Hindu sentiment is rampant in Bangladesh.
Advertisement This is coupled with anti-India sentiment. For instance, the current floods in Bangladesh are being attributed to India opening a dam in Tripura after heavy rains, despite the Indian government's statement that it provided all the hydrological data it routinely does.
Sheikh Hasina's departure is a setback for India's geopolitical aspirations. India's strategy of focusing solely on the Awami League, neglecting the Bangladesh National Party led by Khaleda Zia, appears to have backfired.
The undeniable decline of Indian influence in Bangladesh, replaced by forces hostile to India, raises questions about the motives behind the regime change. The extent to which this was a genuine popular uprising or driven by suppressed desires remains unclear.
The implications of this shift for Bangladesh, India, and the region are far-reaching, especially considering the potential impact of climate change. Projections indicate that 11% of Bangladesh's land could be submerged by 2050, displacing 18 million people and triggering unprecedented migration into India.
Regime Change operation: Who benefits from it?
The question of who benefits from this regime change in Bangladesh is crucial. The Latin phrase "Cui bono?" prompts us to examine potential motivations for this upheaval. Several entities stand to gain from this situation.
Pakistan stands to gain significantly. The country has never fully recovered from the balkanization of 1971. Pakistan had its supporters in place during that time, including individuals who collaborated with the Pakistani Army in targeting Hindus, leading to killings, rapes, and ethnic cleansing. They also targeted Muslim political opponents. These individuals, whom Sheikh Hasina referred to as "Razakars," are now in positions of power.
China clearly benefits whenever something occurs that harms India's interests. There is the recurring issue of the Chicken's Neck, that narrow strip of land connecting the Seven Sister states of India's Northeast to the Gangetic Plain. It is a constant threat to India that someone (most likely China) will sever this connection and fragment India, with the Northeast potentially becoming part of a Greater Bangladesh, accompanied by associated genocide of Hindus and Buddhists.
Advertisement Former Ambassador Veena Sikri discussed an unusual event with Ambassador TP Sreenivasan: Sheikh Hasina's state visit to China in mid-July, which was marked by a significant setback. Xi Jinping declined to meet with her, and she shortened her visit by a day, returning to Dhaka. This unprecedented protocol violation during a state visit suggests that China believed Sheikh Hasina's political future was uncertain. This stands in stark contrast to Xi's 2016 visit, when he made substantial promises about investments under the Belt and Road Initiative.
The United States also has its own interests. Sheikh Hasina made two key accusations:
Advertisement An unnamed Western power seeks to establish a military base on St Martin's Island (also known as Coconut Island) off Cox's Bazaar, with the aim of monitoring both China and India.
An unnamed Western power intends to create a new Christian Zo nation (comprising Mizo, Kuki, and Chin communities), similar to the Christian-majority states established in East Timor and South Sudan.
The implication was that the unspecified Western power was the US.
The extent to which the US would benefit from a military base in the Bay of Bengal is unclear, but there is a long history of a "Great Game" initiated by the British, seeking to limit India's role as a supplier of raw materials and a market for their products. The US might have inherited this strategy.
Interestingly, the US Deep State and its allies in Western media had constructed a narrative portraying Sheikh Hasina as a model leader for developing Asia, a woman who had successfully improved her country's economic standing. The fact that Bangladesh's per capita GDP had surpassed India's and that its garment industry was thriving were used to belittle India's own economic achievements. The shift to portraying Hasina as a ‘dictator’ was a sudden change in narrative.
Advertisement There is compelling circumstantial evidence suggesting external influence in the recent events in Bangladesh. However, conclusive proof is still awaited.
Was this indeed a regime-change coup or a popular uprising?
While Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina's 15-year rule was not a perfect democracy, there are mitigating factors to consider. This includes the violent history that led to the assassination of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the independence hero, just four years after the bloody birth of the nation following the Pakistani Army's assault on its Bengali citizens. The demolition and disrespect of his statue suggests that his national hero status may not be universally accepted. It appears that pro-Pakistan forces aim to erase his legacy entirely.
The history of democracy in independent Bangladesh is marked by instability and violence. Before his overthrow and death in 1975, Mujibur Rehman himself had prohibited all opposition political parties. Following Mujib, the country experienced direct military rule until 1986 when Hussain Mohammed Ershad, the former Chief Martial Law Administrator, became the elected President.
Following Ershad's removal after student-led protests in 1991, Khaleda Zia (BNP or Bangladesh National Party) became the Prime Minister. Subsequently, she and her long-time rival Sheikh Hasina (Awami League) alternated in power. The BNP boycotted the 2018 elections, in part due to Khaleda Zia's imprisonment on corruption charges.
Throughout these events, students have played a significant role. In 1971, when Yahya Khan launched Operation Searchlight, the Pakistani army targeted students and professors at Dhaka University, particularly those who were Hindu. Later, student protests were instrumental in the overthrow of Ershad.
The immediate cause of the unrest in 2024 was also a student uprising. A 30 percent quota in government jobs was reserved for the children of freedom fighters. Coupled with other reserved positions, such as those for minorities and women, a total of 56% of government jobs were allocated through this reservation system by 2018. This reservation system was largely abolished by Sheikh Hasina's government in 2018 after another student agitation.
In June 2024, a Bangladesh High Court declared the 2018 judgment unconstitutional. Although the Supreme Court overturned the ruling and restored the status quo ante (significantly reducing reservations to 7 percent in total), peaceful student protests quickly escalated into violent confrontations led by members of the Jamaat-e-Islami (an Islamist party) and the BNP. There were police shootings. The Daily Star, a respected newspaper, reported that 204 people were killed in the first few days, of whom only 53 were students.
It seems the supposed 'student revolution' was hijacked by professional agitators and provocateurs, leading to the rapid overthrow of Sheikh Hasina. Violence escalated, particularly against Hindus, with the Army intervening. Despite the Army's current control, the establishment of an 'interim government' serves as a smokescreen, providing a pretext for entities like the UN to refrain from imposing sanctions on Bangladesh.
It is difficult to accept at face value that this was a popular uprising; circumstantial evidence suggests a clear agenda for regime change, and as it benefits both China and the US to keep India constrained, either could have been behind it. The diplomatic snub to Hasina in July indicates that the Chinese were well aware of the impending coup.
Conversely, the abrupt shift in Western media narratives regarding Hasina hints at a potential US decision to abandon her. The regime change process mirrors the tactics employed in other nations experiencing so-called “color revolutions.” The National Endowment for Democracy (NED)’s actions, alongside certain diplomats’ support for the BNP, have been presented as evidence of US duplicity.
The involvement of the fundamentalist group, Jamaat-e-Islami, with its strong ties to Pakistan, is undeniable. Their role as enforcers, having invested assets within the armed forces, seems probable. They have demanded the replacement of Bangladesh’s secular constitution with Islamic Sharia law, advocating for non-Muslims to be relegated to second-class citizenship.
The attacks on Hindus, including numerous lynchings, rapes, and abductions of women, strongly suggest a religious motivation, bringing Jamaat-e-Islami’s prejudices to the forefront. Notably, the entire Western media, Amnesty International, the United Nations, and the USCIRF, all human rights specialists, remained silent regarding the horrific oppression of Hindus.
The New York Times even ran a headline about “revenge killings” of Hindus, implying that the 8% minority Hindu population was somehow responsible for any alleged actions of Sheikh Hasina. After facing criticism, the NYT altered the headline to simply “killings” of Hindus, without explanation or apology.
Professor Mohammed Yunus’ role is also intriguing: he was invited to lead an interim government in 2007 but ultimately withdrew and left politics. While previously close to Sheikh Hasina, securing licenses for his Grameen Phone during her tenure, they later had a falling out. Yunus’ Nobel Peace Prize and his past association with the US have raised questions about whether he is actually acting in US interests.
Considering all this evidence, it is far more likely that this was a coup rather than a popular uprising. The masterminds behind this coup remain to be identified.
What next for India and the region?
India faces several long-term challenges. These challenges come at a time when India already grapples with issues on its borders, such as those with the Maldives and Nepal. The recent coup in Bangladesh further complicates the situation, rendering both the BIMSTEC and SAARC alliances less effective.
Strained India-Bangladesh Relations: The removal of Sheikh Hasina, a close ally of India, has fueled anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh. The new government might not be as supportive of India, particularly on sensitive topics like trade and security. This could undermine the progress made in bilateral relations over the past decade. The presence of hardliners among the ‘advisers’ to the interim government indicates that India may have limited influence in the future.
Increased Border Security Risks: India shares a long, porous border with Bangladesh. The political instability and potential increase in extremist groups could lead to more infiltration, smuggling, and illegal migration into India’s northeastern states, posing internal security risks. Monitoring the border region will be critical. As it is, there are millions of illegal Bangladeshis and Rohingya residing in India, which actually poses a threat to internal Indian security.
Economic Fallout: Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in the region, with $13 billion in commerce under the Hasina government. A deterioration in relations could hurt Indian exports and investments. The economic interdependence means India also has a stake in Bangladesh’s stability and prosperity. Brahma Chellaney pointed out that Bangladesh is in dire straits, and has requested $3 billion from the IMF, $1.5 billion from the World Bank, and $1 billion each from the Asian Development Bank and the Japan International Cooperation Agency to tide over problems.
Climate Change Impacts: Both countries are susceptible to the effects of climate change, including rising sea levels, floods, droughts, and extreme weather events. Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable due to its low-lying geography. Millions of climate refugees could seek refuge in India, straining resources and social harmony.
Geopolitical Implications: The regime change has created an opportunity for China to expand its influence in Bangladesh. India will need to manage its relationship with the new government while simultaneously counteracting Chinese influence in the region. The US is also closely observing developments in Bangladesh. Instability in the region benefits Pakistan, whose long-term goal might be to separate India's Northeast as retribution for the creation of Bangladesh and the increasing normalization in Jammu and Kashmir.
Quota Implications: Indians, particularly those advocating for ‘proportional representation’ should consider that Bangladesh's quota system was entirely abolished by Sheikh Hasina's administration in 2018 in response to student demands. India's constitution limits reservations to 50%, but some are pushing for even more, which could lead to resentment and potentially violence. It's not inconceivable that such a scenario could trigger a regime change in India as well.
The plight of Hindus and Buddhists in Bangladesh is a pressing concern. The Hindu population has significantly dwindled from 28% in 1971 to 8% today, indicating a dire situation. Buddhist Chakmas in the Chittagong Hill Tracts also face considerable challenges. India should strengthen the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) or establish a formal Right to Return for Hindu and Buddhist Bangladeshis. As Rahul Shivshankar highlighted in Open magazine, Hindus have experienced attacks and threats in 278 locations across 48 districts.
In conclusion, the potential collapse of the Hasina government and the ongoing threat of climate change urge India to reconsider its approach to Bangladesh. Promoting stable, democratic, and economically thriving neighboring nations is directly beneficial to India. Rebuilding trust and strengthening cooperation on shared issues will be essential to navigate the changing dynamics in the region.
The author, a conservative commentator for over 25 years, specializes in the study of innovation. The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of Firstpost.
