New faces crop up as Japan searches for new PM
Sept. 19, 2024, 1:31 p.m.
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While the world is engrossed in the upcoming US presidential elections, another critical leadership contest is unfolding in Japan. This contest involves not only the ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), but also its opposition and coalition partner, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) and Komeito. The leader of each party will not only guide their respective party but also shape Japan's political and diplomatic standing on the global stage, making it crucial for the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. Therefore, it is essential to analyze key figures and trends within Japanese politics.
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To date, nine candidates have entered the LDP leadership race, including Shigeru Ishiba, Takayuki Kobayashi, Taro Kono, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Toshimitsu Motegi, Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, Yoko Kamikawa, and Katsunobu Kato. However, among these nine political figures, the contest appears to be primarily between three individuals: Ishiba Shigeru, Sanae Takaichi, and Shinjiro Koizumi.
Ishiba Shigeru, former secretary general of the LDP and former defence minister, has again decided to run for the fifth time. He leads with a policy vision of ‘protecting Japan’s future’, focused on four reforms: party, political, economic, and security. Currently leading in the race, with greater prospects to win among the public. However, despite his high popularity in the public, he does not share good relations with the LDP lawmakers, although he enjoys support from the rank and file of the party. On the foreign policy front, he has called for creating an East Asian NATO-like collective security framework and has also supported revising the constitution to strengthen Japanese forces.
Another prominent leader within the LDP is the incumbent Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is seeking the leadership position for the second time. If victorious, she could become Japan's first female Prime Minister, shattering the glass ceiling in Japanese politics. She represents the hawkish faction of the LDP, aligned with the views of former PM Shinzo Abe and enjoys significant popularity among LDP supporters. Her policy vision, centered around 'Making the Japanese archipelago strong and vibrant,' advocates for increased investment in military, diplomatic, and economic measures to safeguard Japan, revision of Japan's pacifist constitution, and transparent political funding. According to the latest Tokyo Shoko Research Survey, unlike her rivals, Takaichi has garnered greater support from corporate Japan, followed by Ishiba and Koizumi.
Shinjiro Koizumi, former Minister of Environment in the Shinzo Abe government, is viewed by many as a strong contender for the PM's post. This is due to the legacy of his father, former PM Koizumi Junichiro, and his reformist views. Additionally, his unusual political trajectory, demonstrating a strategic approach and acquisition of political and administrative skills akin to Abe, has contributed to his prominence. Beyond these factors, Koizumi's politics, perceived as disruptive and innovative, representing youthful enthusiasm and a focus on moving beyond conventional discourse, distinguishes him. Koizumi has pledged three core policies: political reform, revision of labor hour regulations, and regulatory reforms (including a bill allowing separate surnames). These policies resonate with the public, who desire transparency in political funding and processes, as well as a fresh perspective and leadership in Japanese politics. Based on these elements, Koizumi appears to have struck a chord with the electorate. He currently enjoys the favor of former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and has secured the support of Seiko Noda, who initially expressed her intention to run but later withdrew.
Advertisement Apart from the top three contenders, other candidates vying for the leadership include Toshimitsu Motegi, the current LDP General Secretary, who has garnered relatively less public attention. His policy vision emphasizes Japan's economic rejuvenation, political reforms, and a zero-tax policy. Similarly, Yoko Kamikawa, Japan's Foreign Minister, the most recent entrant in the race, unveiled her policy vision, focusing on building a new economy and pushing for social and political transformations. Kono Taro, the Digital Minister, is in the contest for the third time. His previous attempt in 2021 witnessed a strong showing against Kishida. Another candidate, Hayashi Yoshimasa, is considered unlikely to make significant progress due to limited public support and backing from the LDP rank-and-file members. Despite their considerable political and administrative experience, these candidates currently lack significant public recognition and party support.
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As per current predictions, three individuals — Shigeru Ishiba, Shinji Koizumi, and Sanae Takaichi — are in the running for the top position, with a closer margin between the first and second in public opinion. According to the latest survey by Jiji news, Koizumi received 25.5 per cent, Ishiwa 24.2 per cent, and Takeichi 8.5 per cent from the general public, and 35.6 per cent, 27.1 per cent, 12.1 per cent from LDP supporters (in the same decreasing order).
Within the party, Takaichi enjoys greater support as opposed to other leading members; however, with fast-changing political dynamics, whoever wins the race will depend on how well one collectively gains more points on the three issues: connecting with the public, receiving support from party leaders, and giving hope for a change. All of this is reflected in the polls. In the NHK public opinion poll, LDP voters preferred the following issues: social security, economic and fiscal policy, and political reforms among the public with 35, 26 and 17 per cent respectively. Another poll focusing on LDP voters’ demands listed ‘money and politics’, ‘generational change’, and ‘succession politics’ as their top three issues.
However, the challenge lies in identifying a candidate who can satisfy both sets of expectations. On the one hand, Japanese youth are eager for a break from gerontocracy, while on the other hand, LDP lawmakers are seeking someone who can provide stability and follow in the footsteps of Abe's legacy. Based on current trends, the leading contenders for the LDP leadership are likely to be Koizumi, Ishiba, and Takaichi. This was reflected in a recent NTV poll, which placed Ishiba at the top with 28 percent, followed by Koizumi at 18 percent and Takaichi at 17 percent. However, Takaichi appears to be gaining traction on economic issues and within the party. For instance, a poll conducted by Quick found Takaichi to be the most suitable candidate for the stock market, garnering 29 percent of the votes, followed by Kobayashi (17), Shinziro (15), and Shigeru (10). These complexities make this leadership contest one of the most challenging selection processes for the LDP.
The other side
While LDP is going through its leadership process, simultaneously, CDPJ and LDP coalition partner Komeito are also looking at a new political change. The CDPJ is also witnessing elections for the top post, facing the same issues as the ruling party: how to reinvigorate the party in the face of mounting challenges. The four candidates contesting for the party leadership are Noda Yushihiko, Edano Yukio, Izumi Kenta, and Yoshida Harumi. However, as per the Mainichi Shimbun poll, the fight is only between Noda and Edano, the former leading with 27 per cent, followed by Edano with 14 per cent. With the last election’s performance, the party aims to build itself for better results for the next time.
Amidst political upheaval within the ruling party following Abe's departure, the CDPJ aims to establish an opposition coalition with the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Ishin. Likewise, Komeito is also preparing for a leadership transition, with the next generation poised to take the reins. Komeito Chief Representative Yamaguchi Natsuo has publicly announced his plans to step down after leading the party for 15 years. It is anticipated that Secretary-General Keiichi Ishii will succeed him.
With major political elections or leadership changes anticipated in September, we can expect to see fresh faces shaping Japanese politics within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), and Komeito. This shift takes on special significance amidst mounting internal and external challenges. Current political trends highlight a rising demand for a new generation of leaders in Japan, particularly following recent political scandals like the slush fund controversy. These political trends in Japan also align with international discussions on gerontocracy, encouraging a move away from traditional political practices. While it remains to be seen if this change will permeate both the ruling LDP and the opposition, one thing is certain: the winds of change are beginning to blow.
Abhishek Sharma is a Research Assistant at ORF and a PhD candidate at Delhi University. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.
