India’s population growth slows but working age ratio rises, may reach 64% by 2031: SBI Research
Sept. 24, 2024, 12:39 p.m.
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India's population growth is slowing, but the working-age population is expected to increase. Projections suggest that the working-age population might reach 64.4% by the next Census, as per a report by SBI Research.
The percentage of people aged 15-59, considered the working-age group, has been consistently growing from 55.4% in 1991 to 60.7% in 2021. The report forecasts a further increase to 65.2% by 2031.
This rise occurs alongside a declining average annual population growth rate, which has decreased from 2.2% in 1971 to a projected 1.0% in 2024. This marks a substantial slowdown, with the national population expected to range between 138 and 142 crore in 2024.
The demographic shift also showcases a decrease in the proportion of children aged 0-14 years. This segment has declined from 30.9% in 2011 to an estimated 24.3% in 2024.
Simultaneously, India's elderly population is steadily expanding. Projections indicate that it will reach 10.7% in 2024 and potentially 13.1% by 2031, compared to 8.4% in 2011.
These trends highlight a key transformation in India’s demographic structure. While the nation is becoming increasingly urbanised—with urban population expected to rise to 35-37 per cent by 2024, from 31.1 per cent in 2011—regional variations are notable.
While southern states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana are seeing a decrease in population growth, northern states, particularly Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, are continuing to drive overall population increases.
India's median age is also increasing, projected to rise from 24 years in 2021 to around 28-29 years in 2024.
This shift positions India as one of the youngest countries globally, but with rapid urbanization, the number of cities with over a million residents is expected to grow from 52 in 2011 to between 75 and 80 by 2024.
Advertisement Despite these challenges, the report highlights a promising future for India, which is projected to contribute roughly 25% of the incremental global workforce over the next decade, a crucial factor as developed countries experience an aging population.
As India’s demographic dividend grows, it could serve as a powerful multiplier for economic growth in the coming years.
With inputs from agencies
