Arizona County Holds Key to Presidential Race: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

Aug. 28, 2024, 10:18 a.m.

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Maricopa County, Arizona's largest county and a pivotal swing state, could hold the deciding vote for the next president. The outcome of the November presidential elections and control of the White House could hinge on this county's vote.

Here are five key facts about the county:

The hottest city in the US

Maricopa County is home to Phoenix, Arizona's state capital, where scorching temperatures above 37.7 degrees Celsius persist for four months of the year.

Advertisement Phoenix, built upon the remnants of ancient indigenous civilization, emerged as a sun-drenched metropolis in the late 19th century. This small town in the northern Sonoran Desert held a meager post-Civil War value of only $550.

With the advent of irrigation, Phoenix transitioned from a peaceful frontier hamlet adorned with saguaro cacti to a thriving hub for citrus, cattle, and cotton.

Later, the city's hot, dry climate attracted tuberculosis patients seeking relief.

The neighborhood experienced a notable surge in population following World War II, fueled by the introduction of air conditioning, as well as the influx of immigrants, retirees, and young families seeking affordable housing and a pleasant climate.

Phoenix has surpassed Philadelphia to become the fifth-most populous city in the US. This hub for industrial and financial services is home to over 1.6 million Americans, according to the latest US Census.

Maricopa County makes up 62 per cent of Arizona’s population with 4.5 million residents. It is also the country’s second-largest voting jurisdiction.

Previously a Republican bastion

The county was, until recently, a solid Republican bastion.

“The real significant election, I think, was in 2016 when Trump took the county just by three percentage points. Four years earlier, it was taken by Mitt Romney by 11 points,” David Berman, professor emeritus of political science at Arizona State University, told AFP.

Advertisement In 2020, President Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in Maricopa County by over 45,000 votes, helping him end the Republican Party’s nearly eight-decade winning streak in Arizona.

Berman said Trump’s right-wing agenda has alienated some Arizonans who prefer more centrist Republicans, such as late US senator John McCain.

The growing Hispanic community

According to the most recent census, the Hispanic community in Maricopa County has grown to over one-third of the total population.

This change is part of a larger trend that has been influenced by increased immigration.

Arizona’s Hispanic population grew by 16 per cent between 2010 and 2020, outpacing the state’s overall population growth.

Advertisement “There has been a concentrated effort to bring out the Hispanic vote as well as the Native American vote,” Berman said of the groups, which tend to vote Democratic.

He added that there have also been “some gains for Democrats” as people seeking cheaper housing and better job opportunities continue to move to Arizona from more traditionally liberal states such as California.

‘A red state with purple spots’

More than a third of Maricopa County citizens are not associated with any party, despite Arizona’s history of Republican voting and recent Democratic breakthroughs.

As to the latest data from the county, roughly 34 per cent of registered voters identify themselves as “other,” which is higher than the percentage of Democrats at 28 per cent and comparable to that of Republicans at 35 per cent.

Advertisement The results of the county’s elections are now more uncertain due to the steady increase in that proportion during the last few years.

“Maricopa County still has quite a bit of red in it, and these swing voters will generally opt for more traditional Republicans,” rather than Trump’s hard-right brand, said Paul Bentz, senior vice president at Phoenix-based public affairs firm Highground.

“We are not a purple state,” he said, referring to an area evenly mixed between Republican red and Democratic blue.

“We are a red state with purple spots.”

Early voting dominates

In 2020 and 2022, almost 80 per cent of the county’s voters cast early ballots, following a statewide pattern that began prior to the coronavirus pandemic.

Advertisement “We’ve been doing it for over three decades. Republicans are really the ones that brought early voting to the state of Arizona,” Bentz said.

This practice became readily accessible in 1991 when the state legislature authorized voters to request an absentee ballot for any reason.

After a period of ten years, Arizona implemented a system that automatically provides voters with a ballot for each scheduled election.

The processes of voter verification and vote counting now require several days due to the surge in mail-in ballots following the pandemic.

In 2020, the majority of major US news outlets took over a week to publicly announce their support for Biden.

With inputs from AFP