Gaza Ceasefire Talks: Will Post-Haniyeh Hamas Be More Uncompromising? A Hint from Yahya Sinwar

Aug. 12, 2024, 11:44 p.m.

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As West Asia remains apprehensive and Israel is on high alert anticipating a “duty call of revenge” by Iran following the assassination of former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, the Palestinian group has decided to abstain from participating in ceasefire talks scheduled for August 15, potentially taking place in Egypt or Qatar. Haniyeh was instrumental in advancing ceasefire negotiations, with US President Joe Biden proposing a framework for peace in West Asia.

Advertisement Haniyeh’s assassination led to the selection of a new political leader — Yahya Sinwar. This event has brought the group’s future strategies into sharp focus. Sinwar’s leadership raises crucial questions about whether Hamas will adopt a more inflexible approach in ceasefire negotiations and wider diplomatic endeavors.

Initial Indications: Hamas’s Position on Ceasefire Negotiations

In a seemingly altered position, Hamas has explicitly declined participation in new negotiations for a ceasefire-hostage exchange, slated to take place in Cairo, Egypt or Doha, Qatar.

Instead, the group has demanded that mediators propose a plan grounded in prior agreements from July 2, which are consistent with President Joe Biden's vision and the UN Security Council resolution.

Hamas’s statement insists that mediators should enforce these prior agreements rather than engaging in new rounds of discussions. The group’s refusal to enter fresh negotiations underscores its rigid stance and desire to avoid proposals perceived as beneficial to Israel’s position.

It stated, “The mediators should enforce this on the occupation [Israel] rather than pursuing additional rounds of negotiations or new proposals that would provide cover for the occupation's aggression and grant it more time to continue its genocide against our people.”

International mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the US last week urged Israel and Hamas to participate in negotiations on a ceasefire and hostage release agreement on August 15. Israel subsequently confirmed its participation in the meeting.

Advertisement Negotiations stalled last month, after new terms were introduced to the framework presented by Biden in May. According to Biden's truce plan, a deal would begin with a complete ceasefire and the release of a number of hostages. The UN Security Council later endorsed that framework.

Sinwar's uncompromising approach

Yahya Sinwar, the current leader of Hamas, represents a distinct change from his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh. Renowned for his resolute stance and military experience, Sinwar is considered a key figure behind the recent forceful attacks on Israel. This leadership transition suggests a potential shift towards more inflexible strategies.

Sinwar is viewed as a key strategist behind Hamas’s recent aggressive operations, including the devastating attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in significant casualties among Israeli soldiers and civilians.

Advertisement West Asia experts, such as Khaled Elgindy from the Middle East Institute, anticipate that Sinwar's influence will make Hamas's decision-making process more rigid and less open to concessions, thereby complicating any endeavors towards a ceasefire.

Sinwar's leadership could also hinder efforts to achieve Palestinian unity. Haniyeh had been engaged in recent reconciliation discussions with Fatah, aiming to bridge the divides between the factions.

Sinwar's more hardline approach, however, may obstruct these endeavors. Analysts, including Mouin Rabbani, suggest that while President Mahmoud Abbas is a significant obstacle to reconciliation, Sinwar's skepticism towards compromises could further exacerbate the divisions within Palestinian politics.

The potential impact of Sinwar's leadership on Hamas's strategic foreign relations

Sinwar's appointment as head of Hamas is expected to continue their existing strategic partnerships with countries like Qatar and Iran. Unlike Haniyeh, who enjoyed international travel, Sinwar's limited mobility due to the ongoing conflict may hinder his personal diplomatic interactions. Haniyeh frequently resided in Doha and engaged with foreign leaders to gain a wider perspective on the Israel-Hamas conflict. In contrast, Sinwar has lived in Gaza since his release by Israel in 2011, experiencing firsthand the feelings of the Gazan people during Israeli attacks.

Nevertheless, Sinwar is also known for his pragmatic approach to foreign relations, seeking to strengthen ties with any nation or organization willing to support Hamas, regardless of ideological differences. This pragmatism, however, also strengthens his stance against Israel.

Advertisement Sinwar’s rise to power has marked a significant shift in Hamas’s approach, potentially leading to more rigid positions in ceasefire talks and internal Palestinian politics. The group’s rejection of new negotiations and demand for the implementation of previous agreements reflect its uncompromising stance under Sinwar’s leadership, further complicating efforts toward peace and reconciliation.