Chagos’ return: How Britain’s soft power play can be India’s strategic gain

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In a surprising turn of events, the United Kingdom has taken a significant step towards changing the power dynamics in the Indian Ocean. After decades of resisting the idea, the British government has agreed to return the Chagos Archipelago to its rightful owner – Mauritius. This decision signals a renewed focus on influencing nations through diplomacy rather than military force, a strategic move to re-establish the UK's global standing after Brexit. However, it may unintentionally boost the maritime influence of India, a nation rising in regional power.

Advertisement For London, the transfer of Chagos offers a way to repair its strained international reputation within the Commonwealth. The archipelago, excised from Mauritius during decolonisation in 1965, has long been a thorn in the side of British foreign policy. The International Court of Justice ruled in 2019 that the UK should return the islands, a ruling reinforced by the UN’s call for decolonisation. By finally complying with these rulings, Britain upholds international law, even when it comes at a cost. This could bolster the UK’s soft power, crucial in a world where it no longer commands its historic military or economic clout.

However, this move is not without its complexities. The strategically important Diego Garcia military base, leased to the United States and serving as a crucial forward operating base for American bombers, adds a layer of geopolitical tension. From Diego Garcia, the US Air Force projects its power over the entire Indian Ocean coastline. Long-range bombers like the B-1 and B-52 can reach critical targets in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia from this base. The UK's decision to negotiate the return of the islands doesn't mean the US will withdraw, but it raises questions about the future of American military dominance in the region.

For India, the return of Chagos to Mauritius could be a diplomatic triumph. For years, New Delhi has discreetly but consistently supported Mauritius's claim to the archipelago. India's foreign policy, which often emphasizes the moral importance of international law and ending colonial rule, has been in line with this position. This outcome enhances India's diplomatic standing in the Indian Ocean region.

The broader implications of this shift may have unforeseen consequences. If Mauritius gains full sovereignty over Chagos, India could find itself presented with an unprecedented opportunity. The Indian Navy, which has already witnessed its maritime reach grow significantly in recent years, could explore the possibility of establishing a military presence on the islands in collaboration with Mauritius. Such a move would strengthen India's strategic presence in the Indian Ocean, positioning it as a counterbalance to China's increasing maritime influence in the region.

Advertisement Indeed, the return of the Chagos Islands could establish a precedent with far-reaching implications. One could envision Buenos Aires drawing inspiration from this case, renewing its demands for the return of the Falkland Islands from Britain. Argentina has long claimed the Falklands (or Malvinas, as they call them), and a British concession in one territorial dispute could embolden calls for action in another. If Argentina succeeds, it would mark a significant shift in the geopolitical order of the South Atlantic. France also possesses similar strategic outposts and is currently perceived as suppressing liberty.

However, the most profound consequence of this decision might be felt in the shifting balance of naval power across the Indian Ocean. India's naval strategy has long been to expand its influence across the ocean, from its Andaman and Nicobar Command in the east to its strengthening ties with island nations such as Seychelles and the Maldives. With a potential presence in Chagos, New Delhi would gain a substantial advantage in its maritime reach, extending its power further westward into the central Indian Ocean. This could effectively limit Chinese interests.

Advertisement What began as a UK initiative to mend relations with its former colonies could, in fact, evolve into a significant turning point for Indian diplomacy and naval strategy. The principle of decolonization, which India has consistently advocated, could lead to the unexpected emergence of India as a maritime power with increased access to the world's key shipping lanes and strategic maritime routes.

The return of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius illustrates how one nation’s move to restore its international image can trigger hard power advantages for another. This will take deft diplomacy, as New Delhi must work closely with Port Louis as an equal partner rather than adopting a ‘big brother’ stance.

Advertisement The author is a senior journalist with expertise in defence. The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.