By analyzing Bitcoin futures leverage, spot market order books, and psychological trading levels, I constructed a set of trading channels that have proven remarkably consistent over the past six months.

I haven't actively traded crypto since 2021, instead focusing on dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin daily. Eliminating the emotional aspect of trading allowed me to concentrate on the data without letting my personal feelings influence my trades and analysis.

Examining solely the 30-minute price chart for Bitcoin, I drew horizontal lines corresponding to repeating close prices to identify potential stop-loss placement areas for traders. I then compared these levels to Coinglass’s liquidation levels to determine which aligned with high leverage. Finally, I reviewed the Binance spot market order book to analyze where large buy and sell orders were placed outside the current mid-price.

Based on this seemingly straightforward analysis, I created four channels throughout February and March, not to predict the market but to identify potential areas of support and resistance. Over the past six months, these channels have accurately reflected local lows and peaks multiple times.

Furthermore, Bitcoin's decline to $49,000 aligned perfectly with the last line of my bottom channel. I theorized that a fall below this price would lead to new price discovery at lower levels, potentially opening up the possibility of new lows. However, Bitcoin rebounded from the bottom channel before encountering resistance at the top of the channel.

From August 12th to 16th, Bitcoin rebounded from the bottom of the white channel before dropping to the lower boundary of the red channel, finding support there.

Currently, Bitcoin has demonstrated strength, rallying back to the upper limit of the red zone, which represents the second bottom channel in this analysis. Bitcoin briefly broke above the red, threatening to enter the white channel before failing to retest the top of the channel at $61k, potentially returning to the next support level at $60k.

While I am not a proponent of technical analysis as a trading strategy, many others utilize it. Therefore, I find value in identifying areas where other traders might place orders, allowing me to anticipate potential market reversals. Ultimately, charting is only a minor component in determining Bitcoin's price, alongside factors such as regulation, geopolitical events, economic conditions, social sentiment, and on-chain transactions.

I do not claim to be able to predict Bitcoin prices on a daily basis. However, these channels have been highly influential in determining the amount of pressure Bitcoin requires to move past certain price levels, both upwards and downwards.

For example, currently, a significant Bitcoin FUD event triggered by institutions moving large amounts of Bitcoin on-chain would necessitate substantial negative social sentiment to push Bitcoin below $56.6k. Conversely, bullish sentiment fueled by interest rate cuts or increased market liquidity would need to be substantial to break through $66.8k and enter the upper yellow channel.

I post about this analysis on the on-chain social media platform Lens Protocol , along with new SlateCast episodes, on the official CryptoSlate account. None of this analysis should be considered personal financial advice; as mentioned earlier, I do not trade off these levels myself . I believe in buying Bitcoin regularly and consistently at whatever price it is on that day.