Bettors take profits causing US election odds to plummet on Polymarket
Aug. 19, 2024, 8:53 a.m.
Read time estimation: 4 minutes.
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The decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket is witnessing significant activity as traders speculate on the 2024 US presidential election outcomes between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The total volume has now reached $638,887,107, with $72 million for Harris and $80 million for Trump.
Unlike traditional betting platforms, Polymarket allows users to buy and sell positions on various outcomes, enabling them to profit from market fluctuations even before the final resolution of events. This environment reflects real-time shifts in sentiment, similar to the volatility seen in the stock or cryptocurrency market dynamics.
Recent trading data highlights the strategic choices made by Polymarket participants. Over the weekend, 1,275,606 “Yes” votes for Kamala Harris were sold at an average price of $0.50, resulting in a total sale value of $646,462.54.
In contrast, “No” votes for Harris were purchased at an average price of $0.507 and sold at $0.480, with respective total values of $167,462.34 and $167,953.60.
For Donald Trump, 1,932,457 “Yes” votes were purchased at an average price of $0.487, with a total purchase cost of $941,106.56. Meanwhile, “No” votes for Trump were bought at $0.507 for a total value of $290,596.54.
| Candidate | Vote Type | Total Value Bought | Total Value Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | Yes Votes | $339,935.74 | $646,462.54 |
| Kamala Harris | No Votes | $167,462.34 | $167,953.60 |
| Donald Trump | Yes Votes | $941,106.56 | $269,387.52 |
| Donald Trump | No Votes | $290,596.54 | $36,000.00 |
It is worth noting that Harris has over $71 million in total positions placed below $0.50, with shares available for as little as $0.21 just one month ago. Those who sold their Harris positions this weekend seem to be long-term investors taking profits on her recent surge since Biden dropped out of the race. Similarly, Trump’s odds had fallen to their lowest level since May, as bettors appear to be ‘buying the dip’ on Trump.
One user alone sold $207,255 worth of Harris for $0.53 after initiating purchases around $0.48. The user has shifted their positions to Trump with a portfolio of $145,000, a profit of $194,000, and a volume of $4.5 million across 137 markets.
The odds on Polymarket have fluctuated due to this profit-taking and discounted purchases, highlighting the dynamic nature of Polymarket, where market forces can influence the perceived likelihood of outcomes. Currently, Harris leads Trump with odds of 51 to 47, a shift from 54 to 44 just days prior. The only other potential with greater than a 1% chance at present is Michele Obama, with $55,848,003 wagered.
Polymarket’s live prediction model stands in contrast to traditional betting companies, where odds tend to be more static and influenced by bookkeepers. The platform’s real-time adjustments more accurately reflect public sentiment and market confidence. Harris has experienced a surge in support, outpacing Trump in key battleground states like Arizona and North Carolina while narrowing his lead in Georgia and Nevada. This evolving landscape is mirrored in the trading patterns on Polymarket as traders respond to polling data and other influential factors.
Polymarket offers a novel and interactive platform for users to participate in election predictions , enabling them to benefit from market fluctuations and sentiment shifts. This approach provides valuable insights into public opinion and demonstrates the potential for profitability in a market that mirrors the operations of financial trading platforms.
