As the economy rises to the top of voters' concerns in the run-up to the 2024 election, several speakers at the Democratic National Convention have made a point of highlighting the economic progress achieved under President Joe Biden.

When Biden assumed office in early 2021, the U.S. economy was grappling with its "most severe downturn since the Great Depression," according to Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., on Tuesday. Former President Barack Obama echoed this sentiment later in the evening, describing the economy as "struggling."

These assertions contrast with the Republican portrayal of the economic downturn in 2020 and the subsequent recovery. Former President Donald Trump attributed the derailment of the nation's economy to COVID-19, while claiming that the U.S. had made progress in certain areas by the time Biden assumed office.

"Never before has an economy like ours been witnessed, pre-COVID, and then we handed over a stock market that was significantly higher than just before COVID," Trump stated at the Republican National Convention last month.

An accurate picture of recent economic performance defies the narratives put forward by both parties, economists told
.

Experts point out that the economy had already rebounded from the pandemic-induced recession and begun to recover by the time Biden took office. However, some key indicators of economic well-being, such as employment, remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels in the U.S. They also add that Biden faced the challenging task of revitalizing the economy and getting Americans back to work.

"There are kudos to be given to all the different sides," Frederick Floss, an economics professor at Buffalo State University, told
. "It's very complex."

Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, the economy demonstrated robust performance based on several key indicators. In February 2020, the unemployment rate stood at 3.5%, matching its lowest level in more than half a century. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product exhibited healthy growth at an annualized rate of 2.1% during the final quarter of 2019.

The onset of the pandemic, along with widespread shutdowns across the U.S., plunged the economy into a recession . On March 12, 2020, the S &P 500 experienced a steep decline of nearly 10%, marking its worst single-day performance in over three decades. The following month, the unemployment rate surged to almost 15%.

In March 2020, Trump signed into law a $2.2 trillion economic rescue package, which included direct payments of $1,200 and expanded unemployment benefits, among other measures. Several months later, in December, Trump implemented a second round of government support totaling $900 billion.

During this period, a substantial portion of the economy reopened, and business activity gradually returned to a semblance of normality.

However, the economy rebounded significantly in the second half of 2020. By the end of the year, the unemployment rate had dropped to 6.7%, nearly twice the pre-pandemic level but considerably lower than the peak reached immediately after the outbreak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S &P 500 closed the year at record highs.

The COVID-induced recession spanned a mere two months in the spring of 2020, marking the shortest U.S. recession ever recorded, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research , a non-profit entity serving as the recognized authority on economic downturns.

Economists differed on the extent to which Trump should be credited for the initial recovery, attributing it to a combination of federal support he enacted and the lifting of restrictions imposed by state and local governments.

"It was a very short-lived recession," Matthias Vernengo, a professor of economics at Bucknell University, told
. "That obviously happened under the Trump administration.

Jesse Rothstein, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of California, Berkeley, added: "It's a faster recovery than we've witnessed in any previous crisis, but no other recession has experienced this form where we confined everyone. It's much easier to recover when demand is still present."

Despite its improvement toward the latter part of 2020, the economy was still far from robust when Biden assumed office, particularly concerning the crucial issue of employment, economists stated.

U.S. government data revealed that the country lost 21.9 million jobs in March and April of 2020. At the start of the following year, the economy was still lacking about 10 million jobs. Additionally, pandemic-induced bottlenecks continued to disrupt supply chains, hindering economic output globally.

"A fair statement is that the economy at the end of 2020 had recovered substantially but there were still millions of job losses that the economy hadn't recovered from," Dennis Hoffman, an economist at Arizona State University, told
.

Rothstein, of the University of California, Berkeley, stated that the economy remained precarious at the start of the Biden administration in early 2021."I believe calling it an economic crisis is completely justified," Rothstein said.

Nevertheless, Rothstein added: "We took some effective actions in 2020 and we took some effective actions after 2020."

In March 2021, Biden signed a $1.9 billion economic stimulus plan, including another round of $1,400 direct payments and an expanded child tax credit. The following year, Biden implemented the $891 billion Inflation Reduction Act and the $280 billion CHIPS and Sciences Act.

During Biden's presidency, the job market saw rapid growth while the economy accelerated. By 2022, all jobs lost during the pandemic had been regained. In January 2023, the unemployment rate dipped even lower than its pre-pandemic level.

Economists who spoke with
credited Biden-backed government stimulus for the reemergence of U.S. economic strength, but they differed over whether the spending had contributed to a severe bout of inflation experienced during that period.

"We were able to recover as an economy, and job creation has been quite impressive," said Hoffman, of Arizona State University. "That program became very successful – it also brought inflation."

Jason Furman, a Harvard University professor and former economic advisor to President Barack Obama, calculated that Biden's American Rescue Plan contributed between 1 and 4 percentage points to the inflation rate in 2021, Roll Call reported. Michael Strain, of the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute, assessed that the legislation added 3 percentage points to inflation.

Vernengo, from Bucknell University, countered this perspective, attributing the surge in inflation to a supply-demand imbalance that emerged in the wake of the pandemic. "Inflation has essentially disappeared," Vernengo asserted, suggesting that the price moderation indicates the issue was primarily rooted in a temporary economic shock.

Price increases have subsided markedly from a peak exceeding 9%, but inflation remains nearly a percentage point above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%.

Vernengo, affiliated with Bucknell University, observed that both major political parties have presented skewed narratives regarding the 2020 economic downturn and the subsequent rebound. "The truth lies somewhere in the middle," Vernengo remarked.