Economists Voice Concerns About Trump's Proposed Interest Rate Changes
Aug. 12, 2024, 5:40 p.m.
Read time estimation: 7 minutes.
4
The previous head of state Donald Trump recently proposed that the president should have a say in setting interest rates that influence costs for everything from mortgages to credit card loans.
The proposal would represent a significant departure from the long-standing tradition of political autonomy at the Federal Reserve, which currently retains authority over interest rate policy. The nation's central bank is engaged in a protracted effort to curb inflation.
"The president should have a significant role in the Federal Reserve," Trump stated during a press briefing at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida last week. "I firmly believe this. In my opinion, I have accumulated considerable wealth, achieved remarkable success, and possess a superior understanding compared to many individuals who serve on the Federal Reserve or as its chairman."
The policy idea elicited opposition from both liberal and conservative economists who spoke to
.
Experts cautioned that any president, including Trump, would likely pursue policies aimed at keeping interest rates low to stimulate short-term economic expansion. They argued that this approach could lead to uncontrolled inflation, potentially causing substantial economic harm in the long term, even after the president has left office.
"It's an absolutely bad idea," George Selgin, senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the libertarian Cato Institute, told
.
"Chief executives are often shortsighted regarding monetary policy," Selgin said. "They are eager to exploit the temporary economic growth that easy money can provide and disregard or downplay the long-term consequences, which may include runaway inflation."
New York University economics professor Paul Wachtel, an expert on monetary policy, shared similar criticisms.
"I can't think of anything that economists across the spectrum agree upon more than the importance of central bank independence," Wachtel told
.
Responding to a request for comment from the Trump campaign, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee (RNC) blamed the Biden administration for recent years' escalating inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates.
"The president's policies already affect interest rates -- the failed Harris-Biden economic agenda has led to the fastest increase in mortgage rates since 1981," RNC spokesperson Anna Kelly told
. "As the deciding vote on the so-called 'Inflation Reduction Act' that actually spiked prices and made housing unaffordable for families across the country, Kamala Harris co-owns the disastrous impact of Bidenomics, and no one can afford another four years."
Trump's suggestion comes as the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at their highest point in over twenty years. The central bank has contributed to a substantial decrease in inflation from its peak, but the elevated interest rates pose a risk of pushing the U.S. economy into a recession.
Concerns about the Federal Reserve's influence on a possible economic decline intensified earlier this month when a disappointing jobs report indicated that the economy might be cooling more quickly than anticipated.
"This is a situation where some might question the Fed's choices and think Trump could have made a different call. However, judging monetary policy based on a single event isn't wise," Selgin stated.
Those who oppose giving the president more power often cite a period of significant inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. Prior to the onset of this inflation, President Richard Nixon had encouraged Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur Burns to reduce interest rates in the lead-up to the 1972 presidential election.
Nixon's advocacy is widely viewed as a contributing factor for lower-than-necessary interest rates that enabled inflation to get out of control, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told
.
"Granting the president, any president, the power to influence monetary policy would ultimately lead to the collapse of the U.S. economy," Zandi stated.
Although the Fed maintains a direct connection to the federal government, the Chair of the Federal Reserve is nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate to a four-year term. Moreover, Congress establishes legislative guidelines that define the overall framework for interest rate policies.
Selgin, a researcher at the Cato Institute, admitted that the Fed's political independence is not absolute.
"The Federal Reserve's autonomy is not complete," Selgin stated. "Given its limited nature, preserving the existing degree of independence is crucial."
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris , on Friday, expressed her disagreement with Trump's proposal.
"As president, I would never attempt to influence the decisions made by the Federal Reserve, which operates independently," Harris said to reporters in Phoenix, Arizona.
The Federal Reserve, or the Fed, is charged with the task of managing both inflation and maximizing employment. Ideally, lower interest rates encourage economic growth and job creation, while higher interest rates curb economic expansion and tame inflation.
A decrease in interest rates is highly anticipated at the Federal Reserve's upcoming September meeting, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool , a gauge of market sentiment. Market analysts are divided on whether the Fed will implement a traditional reduction of 0.25 percentage points or choose a more substantial 0.50 percentage point cut.
A reduction in interest rates in September would take place in the closing stages of the presidential election.
Last month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that future interest rate decisions would be determined exclusively by economic circumstances.
"The Federal Reserve believes that Congress has instructed us to operate in an unbiased and apolitical manner consistently, not just occasionally," Powell stated at a news conference in Washington, D.C., last month.
"Our tools are not used to endorse or reject any political party, individual politician, or specific political outcome. The key point is, if we dedicate ourselves to doing our best and stick to our responsibilities, it will benefit all Americans," Powell stated.